Friday 07 May 2010 04:05pm
Tags: politics
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Almost every single seat has now been declared. Just two are outstanding, one of which doesn't go to the polls until 27 May, so the makeup of the House of Commons is effectively known.

Throughout the afternoon, all leaders have made statements to the cameras and the theme of these statements is the same - what deals can be done to create the required stable government?

Nick Clegg was the first to speak, indicating his willingness to work with the Conservatives as the largest party in terms of both seats and percentage vote. He had said previously that he believed that the largest party should have the first opportunity to create a government and he was true to his word.

Gordon Brown spoke outside Number 10 trying to distance himself from his role as leader of the Labour Party and saying that he spoke as Prime Minister in the national interest. He made very clear that the government is still functional noting that Mr Darling would be involved in European talks regarding the recent financial crisis. The message to the Liberal Democrats was clear - that he would be happy to look at ways to work together where there is a common interest between the two parties. He acknowledged that Clegg had indicated that the Conservatives had first choice and said they should take all the time that they need.

Finally David Cameron spoke of impressive party gains in terms of the number of seats and the share of the vote. He applauded and welcomed new Conservative MPs and highlighted that these are part of the new breed of Conservatives. He then went on to say to the Lib Dems that he would make them a comprehensive offer. He said they could work together on common areas between manifestos - education, ID cards, tax reforms and the low carbon economy. Defence, Europe and debt reduction were not areas for compromise however.

A key part of the Liberal Democrat manifesto is electoral reform. David Cameron touched on this subject too by saying he would support an inquiry into political and electoral reform. He stopped short of supporting a referendum on the electoral system however.

There has been some negativity in the Tory ranks regarding these offers made by Cameron, but from my point of view this does seem sensible. Where parties share common ground it makes sense to work together even if it does mean some compromises. An inquiry into electoral reform does not necessarily lead to a proposal to change the voting system but can include Conservative pledges such as giving constituents the right to recall their MP. Given the situation, it is either accept some compromises and team up with another party or accept defeat.

We're now in a situation where discussions are going to take place. It's reported the the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will enter such discussions this evening, but it could be some time though before a resolution to this hung parliament is found - assuming one is found of course.

Friday 07 May 2010 09:37am
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There are still some seats left to declare, but it is certain now that we have the first hung parliament since 1974.

The polls closed at 10pm last night and immediately the results and analysis coverage started on the BBC and other channels. I have been awake all night taking in the results as they happened; following the television coverage, forum discussion on DigitalSpy and glancing at Twitter comments on the #ge2010 hashtag.

Before any results were announced, the obligatory Exit Poll commissioned for the BBC, Sky and ITV was released giving the Conservatives 307 seats, Labour 255, Lib Dems 59 and other parties 29. The poll was treated with some skepticism by many as the Liberal Democrats performance was expected to be much better following the positive results for Nick Clegg in the three leaders debates.

The first results were announced before 11pm in Sunderland where the staff their were racing against the clock to get the first result announced as soon as possible. Aside from their speed, the interesting early result was the degree of swing to the Conservatives - an average of 9.9% over the first two results - despite these seats being safe Labour constituencies.

As can be expected, initial declarations were few and far between but by 1am the pace did start to pick up, and the estimated swing to the Conservatives dropped to 5.1% leading to seat predictions in line with the Exit Poll. The poll was further supported by repeated Liberal failures including the dramatic loss of Montgomeryshire for which the member of parliament was Lembit Opik - the MP who famously had a relationship with one of the Cheeky Girls.

It became clear quite soon that the Labour Party was not going to win this election. Their woes were compounded by the loss of high profile MPs Jacquie Smith and Charles Clarke. Good news did come for them though when Ed Balls managed to win his seat in the Morley and Outwood constituency.

By 4:15am, over half of the available seats had been declared. 161 seats had been won by the Conservatives, 126 by Labour, 24 to the Lib Dems and 25 to others. At this point, only 1 seat had been lost by the Conservatives. By 7.30am, only a further 2 seats had been lost.

The announcement of results slowed down dramatically come 8am when 51 seats were still undeclared. Now, at 9:41 there are still 36 seats remaining. What has changed now though is the certainty over a hung parliament. It is now impossible for any party to obtain a majority with the Conservatives at 290, Labour 246, Lib Dems 51 and others 27. The target for a majority is 326 and the most the Conservatives can now gain is 325.

Aside from the statistics and on a personal note, I have quite mixed feelings on this result. I've never experienced a hung parliament so from that point of view it is interesting but I am disappointed that my chosen party did not obtain an outright win. I do hope though that the Conservative Party see this is a very positive election for them. The party has obtained a huge number of seats - 91 at the time of writing - and that is a superb achievement.

What happens now is up in the air. Will Gordon Brown try to hang on to power? Will a coalition be formed and if so, who with? Will the Conservatives come to power with a minority government?

Aside from a couple of short naps yesterday afternoon, I've been awake since 7am yesterday - I estimate in total just under 24 hours. I don't want to miss any announcements about what may happen so it looks like for the time being at least, I'll be hitting that caffeine and staying awake for a number of hours more.
Thursday 06 May 2010 03:46pm
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Today is polling day for what is being described as a historic general election.

For the last month, the media has been dominated by campaign events, opinion polls, talk of a hung parliament and - for the first time ever - televised debates between the leaders.

I love all this. I genuinely find politics fascinating and interesting and I like knowing that I have paid close attention and feel that I will be using my vote wisely. The debates have been an interesting addition to the campaigns giving us the viewers a chance to see what our prospective leaders are like when put on the spot, allowing us to find out more about what they stand for and (importantly) to see how they treat the opposing parties.

As always, there have been rehearsed lines and soundbites planned by PR people behind the scenes. This is the one thing that turns me off campaign events. Nick Clegg has been particularly bad with this trying to position his party as better than the other two. That his party is new politics and they are old. If I'm being picky, the Liberal party has roots going back far further than than Labour so I don't really understand where he is coming from.

That's not to say that the other parties haven't been guilty of soundbites. The buzzword this time seems to be 'fairness'. 'Change' crops up often as well particularly from the Conservatives. I understand where parties are coming from - they need short succinct words to grab the attention of the electorate and it was fine for the first week, perhaps two. Now I'm sick of hearing them and almost want someone to say 'screw fairness and change'. I don't really believe that though. Of course our country should be fair and I want something new.

I made my decision about who would get my vote a long time ago and make no secret of it. In the 2005 election, the Liberal Democrats were my party of choice. Now I've moved to the Conservatives. Their policies on a smaller government, greater individual responsibility, giving communities more power and plans to reduce wasteful spending in the public sector all resonate.

What I'm not going to do is preach to others to do the same. The party campaign machine does enough of that, and the internet is awash with blogs, microblogs and forum posts telling readers who to vote for. Of course I hope my choice is successful and wins enough seats to form a government but if that is not the will of the majority then so be it.

What I think is important is that people vote. Whether it be Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Labour or Monster Raving Loony; this is our chance to have our say on the way the country is run. We should all grab that opportunity and place our mark wisely at the Polling Booth.

And why is this election historic? Well for the first time in years nobody is able to predict the outcome. Opinion polls have been consistently close and if they are accurate then we could have a hung parliament for the first time in over 35 years. Thanks to the televised debates, the Liberal Democrats appear to have support equaling that of Labour (depending on which poll you look at). The result truly is up in the air and it will only start to come down when the winners start being announced overnight tonight.
Wednesday 05 November 2008 06:53pm
Tags: politics
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Senator Barack Obama has been elected to become the 44th President of the United States of America, beating rival John McCain in the elections which took place yesterday.

I really wanted to stay awake to hear the results come in, but couldn't really stay awake much past midnight when the first results started coming in. So when I went to sleep, McCain was ahead 8 points to 3.

That can't have lasted long though since Obama had over 300 electoral votes by 6.10am when I turned on the television compared to McCains less than 200 votes. As things stand at the moment, votes are at 349 to 162 in Obama's favour. 270 votes were required to win so it's easy to see why this election was called fairly early.

So it's the result I wanted, and seemingly most of the rest of the world wanted. The question now is how good a president will he be? Only time will tell that but the feeling at the moment appears to be that America has turned a page on the last 8 years and things are going to be different.
Tuesday 04 November 2008 10:02pm
Tags: politics
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The inescapable news of the day (and for many days prior) is the elections taking place in the United States to choose a new President, members of the House of Representatives and a third of the House of the Senate.

There has been so much coverage in the media (and I'm only referring to the UK), that going over the background to this election is really quite pointless suffice to say that Democratic hopeful Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain have been campaigning to win the votes of the American public in order to become the next US President on 20 January 2009.

Why does it matter to us though? This isn't our politics, and we do not get a say. However, Britain is of course a very close ally of the US. Whichever candidate wins, and whatever policies that candidate presses forward with could impact on Britain, Europe and the rest of the world. One only needs to look at the recent financial crisis which originated in The States to realise this, and the war in Iraq is another obvious area where Britain has been influenced by the policies of America.

So who do I want to win? I actually find it fairly difficult here in the UK to be a fair judge of who I believe should win in overseas elections. After all, I'm not particularly familiar with internal US politics and most of what I see is a result of US foreign policies. As such, that is all I can judge on.

I know that I would not want to see another George W. Bush in the White House, so immediately that indicates a black mark against the Republican candidate John McCain; him being of the same party. Senator Obama has talked often about the need to remove their presence from Iraq and concentrate of Afghanistan, and I do think that's sensible. John McCain, in my mind, seems to be all about the military which is fair I guess, due to his background but it's not a characteristic that endears me towards him. I'm also not a fan of his Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin since I learned that she is a fan of guns (she's a member of the National Rifle Association, and supports the right to bear arms), is for capital punishment, supports Creationism being taught in public schools (although I don't know that she is against teaching Evolution) and wasted $150,000 on her wardrobe ensuring she didn't appear in the same outfit more than once.

So I'm hoping Barack Obama wins. His policies of strengthening alliances around the world is sensible as long as it's not a policy of trying to enforce the way of the United States on other nations. He is keen to use diplomacy with nations such as Iran but is prepared to back this up with military use if necessary. He has a target of cutting US greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, which seems ambitious but certainly worthwhile. Hopefully this will be a change over how things have been under George Bush where green policies have not exactly been Earth shattering - take Kyoto for example.

The first polls close on the Eastern coast at 11pm GMT, and results should start coming in an hour after that. I'm not staying up to find out what happens, but hopefully by the time I switch on BBC Breakfast tommorow morning I will discover who has achieved the minimum 270 electoral votes required to win, and hopefully I will be happier with the outcome than I was four years ago when Bush won his second term.
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