Friday 07 May 2010 09:37am
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There are still some seats left to declare, but it is certain now that we have the first hung parliament since 1974.

The polls closed at 10pm last night and immediately the results and analysis coverage started on the BBC and other channels. I have been awake all night taking in the results as they happened; following the television coverage, forum discussion on DigitalSpy and glancing at Twitter comments on the #ge2010 hashtag.

Before any results were announced, the obligatory Exit Poll commissioned for the BBC, Sky and ITV was released giving the Conservatives 307 seats, Labour 255, Lib Dems 59 and other parties 29. The poll was treated with some skepticism by many as the Liberal Democrats performance was expected to be much better following the positive results for Nick Clegg in the three leaders debates.

The first results were announced before 11pm in Sunderland where the staff their were racing against the clock to get the first result announced as soon as possible. Aside from their speed, the interesting early result was the degree of swing to the Conservatives - an average of 9.9% over the first two results - despite these seats being safe Labour constituencies.

As can be expected, initial declarations were few and far between but by 1am the pace did start to pick up, and the estimated swing to the Conservatives dropped to 5.1% leading to seat predictions in line with the Exit Poll. The poll was further supported by repeated Liberal failures including the dramatic loss of Montgomeryshire for which the member of parliament was Lembit Opik - the MP who famously had a relationship with one of the Cheeky Girls.

It became clear quite soon that the Labour Party was not going to win this election. Their woes were compounded by the loss of high profile MPs Jacquie Smith and Charles Clarke. Good news did come for them though when Ed Balls managed to win his seat in the Morley and Outwood constituency.

By 4:15am, over half of the available seats had been declared. 161 seats had been won by the Conservatives, 126 by Labour, 24 to the Lib Dems and 25 to others. At this point, only 1 seat had been lost by the Conservatives. By 7.30am, only a further 2 seats had been lost.

The announcement of results slowed down dramatically come 8am when 51 seats were still undeclared. Now, at 9:41 there are still 36 seats remaining. What has changed now though is the certainty over a hung parliament. It is now impossible for any party to obtain a majority with the Conservatives at 290, Labour 246, Lib Dems 51 and others 27. The target for a majority is 326 and the most the Conservatives can now gain is 325.

Aside from the statistics and on a personal note, I have quite mixed feelings on this result. I've never experienced a hung parliament so from that point of view it is interesting but I am disappointed that my chosen party did not obtain an outright win. I do hope though that the Conservative Party see this is a very positive election for them. The party has obtained a huge number of seats - 91 at the time of writing - and that is a superb achievement.

What happens now is up in the air. Will Gordon Brown try to hang on to power? Will a coalition be formed and if so, who with? Will the Conservatives come to power with a minority government?

Aside from a couple of short naps yesterday afternoon, I've been awake since 7am yesterday - I estimate in total just under 24 hours. I don't want to miss any announcements about what may happen so it looks like for the time being at least, I'll be hitting that caffeine and staying awake for a number of hours more.
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